The Astonishing Rich Vein of Form Propels Aston Villa's Surprising Title Charge

A mere eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as his coach admonished him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether Rogers' form were a symptom or a cause of the side's more general malaise.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

A Touchline Reaction of Elation

On Sunday, however, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa continued to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points off table-toppers Arsenal.

Are They Genuine Title Contenders?

That’s a rather hard query to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, even as the victories have accumulated.

According to the data, twice all season has the side had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.

The Winning Formula

The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and it happened when facing Manchester United.

Rogers' first goal stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

A Formidable Weapon

Is It Sustainable?

Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all except one of those fixtures.

A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.

Reasons for Optimism

Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.

  • The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
  • The attacking talent might become the player he was in Germany.
  • Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to return from injury, bolstering a sometimes shaky defensive unit.

Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.

Relishing the Unlikely

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.

This remarkable period should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. Such periods are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.

Jared Ward PhD
Jared Ward PhD

A digital strategist and tech enthusiast with over a decade of experience in software development and emerging technologies.